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2021-09-15

主講人: Lixin Tang, Jinan University

主題: National Sentiments in the US-China Trade War: The View from Box-Office in China

時間地點: 2:00-3:30 pm，明德主樓734

摘要：We study the effects of the US-China trade war on national sentiments towards the United States in China. We focus on the motion pictures industry in China, a sector not affected by trade war tariffs, over 2017-2019. We find that a city's exposure to US tariffs has significant adverse effects on US films' box office performance. The loss in box office revenue for US films due to the trade war is estimated at 2.9 billion yuan (US$ 426 million).  In contrast, exposure to US tariffs is associated with an improvement in the box office performance of Chinese films. We conduct several checks to rule out supply-side explanations. The effects of tariff exposure on box office performance of US films are more pronounced for drama, romance, and comedy films and less significant for sci-fi, fantasy and animation films. We interpret the deterioration in US films' box office performance as a consequence of a negative shift in national sentiments towards the US.

2021-09-29

主講人: Xinzheng Shi, Tsinghua University

主題: Does Matching Uncertainty Reduce Marital Payoff: Evidence from China

時間地點: 2:00-3:30 pm，明德主樓729

摘要：How does noise in the information cue to the potential spousal quality affect marriage outcomes? We show in a simple two-dimensional matching model, a noisier cue to one feature decreases positive sorting on this feature and does the opposite on other features. While increasing noise reduces overall expected utility, the effect is asym- metric between genders and among people with different features. Our test explores the repeal of the mandatory premarital health examination (PHE) in China – a change making the health cue noisier. We find that this change reduced post-marital subjec- tive well-being, particularly for the females and the healthier. A major channel for the deterioration is the decline in child health, which is associated with the decrease in sorting by health.

2021-10-20

主講人: Shuo Chen, Fudan University (Cancelled)

主題: Keju, Institutional Committment, and the Great Divergence (with Xinyu Fan, and Zhichen Huang)

時間地點: 3:30-5:00 pm，明德主樓729

摘要：We argue that the Keju system – merit-based recruitment exams routinely selected the finest from the commoners into the bureaucracy – was an institutional origin rooted behind the great (economic) divergence between China and the West in the past two centuries. Eliciting from 3217 volumes, 46 million words of records in the Twenty-four Histories, we recover the complete personal and career records of 8860 bureaucrats from 578 BCE to 1676. Utilizing a difference-in-differences approach, we present two main findings: 1. Grass-root elites without power bases increasingly entered and occupied the central stage of the power colosseum, replacing the hereditary and inter-connected noble families. 2. However, the fates of grass-root elites in the Keju era fell heavily in the hands of the rulers: they careers were more often disrupted by rulers’ discretion, and such tendency was more significant in positions that were easier to accumulate authority. Through the findings, the paper highlights the institutionalization of an effective bureaucratic hierarchy, investigates the fade-away of the power-sharing commitment between rulers and social elites, and provides an Oriental version of the Game of Thrones, where the imperial rule was prolonged and strengthened at the cost of competition, innovation, and prosperity in growth.

2021-12-15

主講人: Zenan Wu, School of Economics, Peking University

主題: Polluted Games: Air Pollution and Competitive Performance in Tournaments

時間地點: 2:00-3:30 pm，明德主樓729

摘要：We investigate the impact of air pollution on competitive performance and equilibrium outcomes in a tournament setting. We first consider a stylized tournament and model air pollution as an increase in a contestant's marginal effort cost. We show that air pollution reduces the favorite's effort unambiguously, whereas its impact on the underdog's incentive is indeterminate due to the strategic interactions between contestants. Further, air pollution could lead to either a more elitist distributional outcome---i.e., the underdog's equilibrium winning probability decreases---or the opposite. In the empirical investigation, we exploit the hourly variation in levels of air pollution and a comprehensive dataset of performance metrics for professional eSports tournaments. We find robust evidence that an increase in the level of air pollution has a significantly negative effect on the weaker team's performance and winning probability, and has a positive effect on the stronger team, thus widening the performance gap between teams. Our finding has broader implications on the average and distributional impact of air pollution on economic outcomes in a strategic environment.

2021-12-22

主講人: Bo Li, Tsinghua PBCSF

主題: The Political Economy of Anti-Bribery Enforcement (Joint with Lauren H. Cohen)

時間地點: 2:00-3:30 pm，明德主樓734

摘要：This paper investigates the influence of political motivations on the regulatory enforcement of foreign bribery. Using case-level data from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and U.S. Department of Justice, we show discretion in the timing of enforcement that in the years leading to a Senate election, the probability of Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) enforcement actions against foreign firms located in that state increase significantly, spiking 23%, but not U.S. firms located in the same states. We use exogenous variation in the timing and geographic location of U.S. Congressional elections to establish identification of our effects at the geographic level. Larger discretion occurs in regions where foreign firms compete intensively with in-state firms, operate in locally important industries, and when Senators serve as the Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee. The cases brought against these foreign firms just prior to elections have the markers of being weaker cases. In response to strategic timing in enforcement, firms reallocate business segments and sales away from perceived corrupt countries.

2021-05-26

主講人: YiKai Wang, University of Essex

主題: Worker Productivity during Lockdown and Working from Home: Evidence from Self-Reports

時間地點: 2:00-3:30 pm，明德主樓734

騰訊會議: 527 222 370 (密碼0526）

2021-06-10

主講人: Yan Bai, University of Rochester

主題: Misallocation under Trade Liberlization

時間地點: 9:00-10:30 AM，明德主樓729

Zoom Meeting ID: 997 0242 8258

2020-09-23

主講人: 焦陽，復旦大學泛海國際金融學院助理教授

主題: 生產在知識經濟中的地理分解

時間地點: 9月23日，2:00-3:30 pm，明德商學院0307

2020-10-21

主講人: 董豐，清華大學經濟管理學院副教授

主題: Lemon Cycle

時間地點: 10月21日，2:00-3:30 pm，明德主樓729

2020-10-28

主講人: 劉爍，北京大學光華管理學院助理教授

主題: Sad Scales and Happy Times: Eliciting Cardinal Information from Ordered Response Data

時間地點: 10月28日，2:00-3:30 pm，明德主樓729

2020-11-18

主講人: 莫家偉，北京大學經濟學院助理教授

主題: Quantifying Network Advantage 

時間地點: 11月18日，2:00-3:30 pm，明德主樓729