【ECON20171217】  
      宏觀經濟學研討會          （總第232期）      
      【時間】2017年11月8日（周三）12：15－13：45          【地點】明商0202教室          【主講】陳小亮 中國社會科學研究院經濟研究所          【主題】The Role of Automatic Stabilizers in the U.S. Business Cycle（A. McKay & R. Reis, Econometrica, 2016）          【點評】薛澗坡 中國人民大學財政金融學院副教授          【摘要】Most countries have automatic rules in their tax-and-transfer systems that are partly intended to stabilize economic fluctuations. This paper measures how effective they are. We put forward a model that merges the standard incomplete-markets model of consumption and inequality with the new Keynesian model of nominal rigidities and business cycles, and that includes most of the main potential stabilizers in the U.S. data, as well as the theoretical channels by which they may work. We find that the conventional argument that stabilizing disposable income will stabilize aggregate demand plays a negligible role on the effectiveness of the stabilizers, whereas tax-and-transfer programs that affect inequality and social insurance can have a large effect on aggregate volatility. However, as currently designed, the set of stabilizers in place in the United States has barely had any effect on volatility. According to our model, expanding safety-net programs, like food stamps, has the largest potential to enhance the effectiveness of the stabilizers.【主持】陳彥斌 教授          
         
         人大宏觀經濟學研討會（Macro Workshop）旨在追蹤宏觀經濟學國際最新進展，倡導構建符合國情的動態優化模型，并使用計算機模擬研究經濟增長、收入分配和宏觀政策等中國宏觀經濟重大問題。          聯系人：劉哲希    Email：Macro_Workshop@163.com          資料下載：www.docin.com/mydoc-88265459-1.html          更多講座信息請訪問：www.dehf4y.cn，www.yanjiuyuan.com.cn。      
                 中國人民大學經濟學院          中國經濟改革與發展研究院