【ECON201218】

宏觀經(jīng)濟學(xué)研討會

（總第123期）

【時間】2012年11月13日（周二）12：15－13：45

【地點】明主0409教室

【主講】夏曉華 博士 中國人民大學(xué)改革與發(fā)展研究院講師。中山大學(xué)嶺南學(xué)院金融學(xué)博士，北京大學(xué)經(jīng)濟學(xué)院應(yīng)用經(jīng)濟學(xué)博士后。
　　　　【主題】Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008（written by Moritz Schularick and Alan M. Taylor, American Economic Review, 2012）
　　　　【摘要】The crisis of the advanced economies in 2008-09 has focused new attention on money and credit fluctuations, financial crises, and policy responses. We study the behavior of money, credit, and macroeconomic indicators over the long run based on a new historical dataset for countries over the years 1870-2008, using the data to study rare events asso- ciated with financial crisis episode. We present new evidence that leverage in the financial sector has increased strongly in the second half of the twentieth century as shown by a decoupling of money and credit aggregates. We show for the first time how money policy responses to financial crises have been more aggressive post-1945, but how monetary policy responses to financial crises have remained large. Importantly, we demonstrate that credit growth is a powerful predictor of financial crises, suggesting that such crises are credit booms gone wrong and that policymakers ignore credit at their peril. It is only with the long-run comparative data assembled for this paper that these patterns can be seen clearly.
　　　　 【主持】陳彥斌 教授

人大宏觀經(jīng)濟學(xué)研討會（Macro Workshop）旨在追蹤宏觀經(jīng)濟學(xué)國際最新進展，倡導(dǎo)構(gòu)建符合國情的動態(tài)優(yōu)化模型（尤其是Bewley模型）并使用計算機模擬研究中國經(jīng)濟改革與發(fā)展的重大問題。

聯(lián)系人：陳偉澤　　E_mail: sysu2006vc@126.com

更多講座信息歡迎訪問se.ruc.edu.cn，www.yanjiuyuan.com.cn

經(jīng)濟學(xué)院

中國經(jīng)濟改革與發(fā)展研究院