產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研討會          會議通知          （總第25期）

【時(shí)間】2018年3月15日（周四）12：00－13：30

【地點(diǎn)】明主623會議室  
【主講】張卓穎  中國科學(xué)院預(yù)測科學(xué)研究中心副研究員  
【主題】Urban transformation optimization model: how to evaluate industrial structure under water resource constraints?  
【點(diǎn)評】夏曉華 中國人民大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院副教授  
【摘要】  
      Many major cities today are beginning to experience increasing water shortages. A major use of water is often in industrial production, and therefore its reduction should go a long way to correcting the situation. The composition of the whole local or regional industrial structure has a significant influence on this, with its combination of sectors of different resource-intensities varying in their scale of use. However, the form of industrial structure also has an influence on other aspects of city life – particularly its economic performance. Evaluating industrial structure, therefore, involves an optimization problem of, on the one hand, determining the appropriate proportions of various types of sectors that will best satisfy the objective of minimizing water consumption in the face of a range of economic and other constraints. Alternatively, it can be seen as an optimization problem with the objective of maximizing economic benefit under a range of water use and other constraints.          
         In developing the optimization model, we first break down industrial water use into two objectives - (1) minimizing total consumption and (2) minimizing intensity (per unit) of consumption. Adding the economic objective of maximizing Gross Domestic Product (GDP), all three are then optimized retrospectively by a series of input-output analyses to evaluate the suitability of the industrial structure. The application of the model is demonstrated in a case study of Beijing that indicates that, while its industrial structures in 1992 and 2002 were far from optimal, the actual 2012 industrial structure was quite close to that determined by the model and augurs well for the city’s future sustainable development.          
         【主講人介紹】張卓穎：中國科學(xué)院預(yù)測科學(xué)研究中心副研究員，在Environmental Science & Technology, Ecological Economics 等國際期刊上發(fā)表多篇論文，主要研究方向?yàn)楫a(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)與資源環(huán)境管理、宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)建模、公共政策分析。                         歡迎相關(guān)領(lǐng)域老師和同學(xué)關(guān)注并參加！如有意作為點(diǎn)評老師或宣講學(xué)生參加前沿文獻(xiàn)選讀活動，可以聯(lián)系經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院夏曉華老師（xia.email@ruc.edu.cn）或者學(xué)生助理陳夢緣（2017102561@ruc.edu.cn）。