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時間：2025年3月12日10:00-11:30

地點：中國人民大學明德主樓734

主講人：魏立佳 武漢大學教授

主持人：苗彬教授

主題：Matching-LLM：Predicting Public Opinions Using Large Language Models

講座簡介：

In recent years, large language models (LLMs) have attracted attention due to their ability to generate human-like text. As surveys and opinion polls remain key tools for gauging public attitudes, there is increasing interest in assessing whether LLMs can accurately replicate human responses. This study examines the potential of LLMs, specifically ChatGPT-4o, to replicate human responses in large-scale surveys and to predict election outcomes based on demographic data. Employing data from the World Values Survey (WVS), the American National Election Studies (ANES), and the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES), we assess the LLM’s performance in two key tasks: predicting human survey responses and both U.S. and German election results. In survey tasks, the LLM was tasked with generating synthetic responses for various socio-cultural and trust-related questions, demonstrating notable alignment with human response patterns across U.S.-China samples, though with some limitations on value-sensitive topics. In voting tasks, the LLM was mainly used to simulate voting behavior in past U.S. elections and predict the outcomes of the 2024 U.S. election and the 2025 German federal election. Our findings show that the LLM replicates cultural differences effectively, exhibits in-sample predictive validity, and provides plausible out-of-sample forecasts, suggesting potential as a cost-effective supplement for survey-based research.

主講人簡介：

魏立佳，武漢大學經濟與管理學院教授、博士生導師，數理經濟與數理金融系主任，行為科學研究實驗中心執行主任。研究領域是行為經濟學，數字經濟?，F兼任教育部經濟學“101計劃”《行為與實驗經濟學》課程聯合牽頭人、China Economic Review等國際期刊的客座編輯等職務。論文發表于Marketing Science、Econometric Theory、Experimental Economics、European Economic Review、Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, AEA: Papers and Proceedings等國際一流期刊，以及《中國工業經濟》、《經濟學（季刊）》、《系統工程理論與實踐》等中文權威期刊。主持國家自然科學基金重點、面上、青年項目，教育部人文社會科學基金，教育部產學研創新基金，科技部高端專家引進項目等國家級、省部級項目。