能源經(jīng)濟學研討會 

【總第67期】

Uncertainty Shocks to Oil Prices and Chinese Macroeconomy
本次能源經(jīng)濟學研討會邀請到中央財經(jīng)大學經(jīng)濟學院的俞劍老師學術演講。

時間：5月6日，星期五，12:00—13:00
地點：中國人民大學明德主樓734會議室

Abstract: This paper investigates the dynamic impacts of uncertainty shocks to oil prices on Chinese real GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and investment. Two measures, sample standard deviation and conditional standard deviation of forecast errors estimated from a GARCH (1,1) model of monthly oil prices, are constructed to characterize uncertainty in oil prices. We find that an increase in volatility of oil prices tends to reduce real GDP and investment, which in turn encourages Chinese government to stabilize the economy via expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. Furthermore, a symmetric result arises when we differentiate impacts of increase and decrease in oil price uncertainties. An increase in volatility of oil prices in the uncertainty-increasing sample suppresses real GDP and investment, while a decrease in volatility of oil prices in the uncertainty-decreasing sample boosts macroeconomy. We ascribe the boosting effect of decreasing uncertainty to the combined factor of falling uncertainty and (concomitant) expansionary monetary and fiscal policies. A cross-section check related to economic geography indicates that uncertainty shocks to oil prices generate a significantly greater negative impact on real GDP and investment in East China, where the economy is more industrialized and depends more heavily on oil.
作者簡介：
俞劍，男，浙江金華人，畢業(yè)于中國人民大學經(jīng)濟學院，獲經(jīng)濟學博士學位。現(xiàn)為中央財經(jīng)大學經(jīng)濟學院講師。主要研究方向為石油價格波動與宏觀經(jīng)濟政策。目前，已在 Social Science Journal，Journal of WTO and China，《經(jīng)濟學動態(tài)》、《金融研究》、《中國人民大學學報》、《經(jīng)濟理論與經(jīng)濟管理》、《財貿(mào)經(jīng)濟》等國內(nèi)外期刊上發(fā)表研究論文十余篇，并有多篇文章被SSCI、EI、人大復印資料全文轉(zhuǎn)載或收錄，同時著有《國際油價波動的市場特征與中國需求沖擊》（合著）。
能源經(jīng)濟學研討會（Energy Economics Seminar）由中國人民大學經(jīng)濟學院能源經(jīng)濟系定期推出，旨在為研究中國能源經(jīng)濟問題的學者提供交流的平臺。

 聯(lián)系人：宋楓（songfeng@ruc.edu.cn）  

中國人民大學 經(jīng)濟學院能源經(jīng)濟系