[能源經濟學研討會]Adaptation to Climate Change on U.S. Agriculture: the Role of Crop Attributes in Farmland Value Formation
發文時間：2014-10-08

[ECON20141714]

能源經濟學研討會


Adaptation to Climate Change on U.S. Agriculture: the Role of Crop Attributes in Farmland Value Formation

本次能源經濟學研討會邀請到密歇根州立大學的王晨光做學術講演。

時間：10月11日，星期六，11:30—12:30

地點：中國人民大學明德主樓734會議室

報告摘要：
     The paper econometrically estimates a joint structural model of crop choices and farmland value using U.S. county-level historical data for 1978-2007. The differential returns to growing two-dozen field crops across different counties is captured through a series of interactions between crop prices, county soil and climate characteristics, and quantifiable crop attributes (e.g. root depth and stomata density) that correlate with yield response to climate and soil conditions. Thus, my model allows me to study the heterogeneous impacts of climate change on agricultural chain (from crop yield to land use choice and farmland value) across counties. Holding crop prices fixed at historical levels, I predict county-level changes in farmland value due to marginal changes in climate. I find that a one-centimeter decrease in rainfall under rainfall deficiency condition during the growing season leads to changes in county farmland value ranging from -160% to -0.2%, while one-centimeter increase in rainfall under rainfall surplus condition leads to changes in farmland value ranging from -3.1% to +53%. Meanwhile, one-degree decrease in temperature under cold stress leads to changes in county farmland value ranging from -103.8% to +0.8%, while a one-degree increase in temperature under heat stress leads to changes in farmland value ranging from -13.3% to +0.1%. My results imply that a uniform 5°F increase in temperature and 8% increase in precipitation across all U.S. counties would lead to an overall increase in U.S. farmland values of 5%. Moreover, the selective adaptation of crop attributes via the adoption of new crops, new crop varieties, and attribute-enhancing chemicals would likely reinforce the beneficial impacts of climate change.
作者簡介： 
     王晨光是密歇根州立大學的“農業經濟”和“食品與資源經濟學”博士候選人，其主要研究領域為農業與資源環境經濟學（氣候變化, 土地使用, 能源政策等）。目前，王晨光已在國內外期刊發表多篇論文，包括““Effect of Outdoor Storage Losses on Feedstock Inventory Management and Plant-Gate Cost for a Switchgrass Conversion Facility in East Tennessee” ，“Cost Evaluation of Alternative Switchgrass Producing, Harvesting, Storing, and Transporting Systems and their Logistics in the Southeastern U.S.”以及“Effect of Low Temperature Stress on Cold-Resistance Ability of Rice Seedlings”等。
     能源經濟學研討會（Energy Economics Seminar）由中國人民大學經濟學院能源經濟系定期推出，旨在為研究中國能源經濟問題的學者提供一個交流的平臺。 


聯系人：宋楓（songfeng@ruc.edu.cn）  


中國人民大學 經濟學院能源經濟系