【ECON20191209】 ? 宏觀經濟學研討會 （總第264期）? ? ??

【時間】2019年5月15日（周三）12：15－13：45 ? ? ? ? ?

【地點】明商0202教室 ? ? ? ? ?

【主講】陳樸 中國人民大學經濟學院副教授 ? ? ? ?

【主題】Wealth and Volatility（Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri, Review of Economic Studies, 2018） ? ? ? ? ?

【點評】劉凱 中國人民大學經濟學院副教授 ? ? ? ? ?

【摘要】Between 2007 and 2013, U.S. households experienced a large and persistent decline in net worth. The objective of this article is to study the business cycle implications of such a decline. We first develop a tractable monetary model in which households face idiosyncratic unemployment risk that they can partially self-insure using savings. A low level of liquid household wealth opens the door to self-fulfilling fluctuations: if wealth-poor households expect high unemployment, they have a strong precautionary incentive to cut spending, which can make the expectation of high unemployment a reality. Monetary policy, because of the zero lower bound, cannot rule out such expectations-driven recessions. In contrast, when wealth is sufficiently high, an aggressive monetary policy can keep the economy at full employment. Finally, we document that during the U.S. Great Recession wealth-poor households increased saving more sharply than richer households, pointing towards the importance of the precautionary channel over this period. ? ? ? ? ?________________________________________ ? ? ? ? ?

人大宏觀經濟學研討會（Macro Workshop）旨在追蹤宏觀經濟學國際最新進展，倡導構建符合國情的動態優化模型，并使用計算機模擬研究經濟增長、收入分配和宏觀政策等中國宏觀經濟重大問題。 ? ? ? ? ?

聯系人：王兆瑞? ? Email：Macro_Workshop@163.com ? ? ? ? ?

資料下載：www.docin.com/mydoc-88265459-1.html ? ? ? ? ?

更多講座信息請訪問：www.dehf4y.cn，www.yanjiuyuan.com.cn。 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

中國人民大學經濟學院

中國經濟改革與發展研究院