數(shù)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研討會

【201401】

報告題目：Inconsistencies in Pork Statistics in China

報告人： Professor Xiaohua Yu (于曉華)

報告時間：2014年01月07日下午12:30-13:30

報告地點：明德主樓729

內(nèi)容簡介：

Official agricultural statistics for China are subject to major inconsistencies and have long been questioned by researchers. The major problem with Chinese meat statistics is that reported meat supply is far greater than consumption, and this is particularly true for pork. Factors contributing to the gap between pork supply and consumption include production over-reporting, loss and waste in the pork supply chain, pork consumed away from home (FAFH), and a mismatch in the Chinese rural household survey between food and mouths (i.e. migrant workers and boarding students who are counted as rural household members but live in urban areas for much of the year). Our estimates indicate that over-reporting of pork production has declined substantially since 2003, but it is still significant and is the largest contributor to the gap between reported supply and consumption. Our estimates also indicate that pork consumption is significantly under-estimated because of FAFH and the rural mismatch between food and mouths. Reforms to the agricultural statistical system should be considered that increase the incentives to report accurate production statistics. Statistics are currently based on reports from local officials who have incentives to inflate production figures so as to improve their performance reviews and prospects for promotion, or they are overseen by local statistical personnel appointed by local governments.

報告人簡介：

于曉華，德國哥廷根大學(xué)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)和農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展系教授。他于2009年獲得賓州州立大學(xué)博士學(xué)位，主要研究方向為Agricultural Economics, Development Economics, 和Environmental Economics等。他是期刊Agricultural Economics的現(xiàn)任Associate-Editor。他已在China Economic Review, Agricultural Economics 和American Journal of Agricultural Economics等英文期刊上發(fā)表了多篇文章。

中國人民大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院數(shù)量經(jīng)濟(jì)教研室

中國人民大學(xué)運籌學(xué)與數(shù)量經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所

2014年01月

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