【ECON20181212】  
 
      宏觀經濟學研討會          （總第247期）      
   
 
      【時間】2018年10月10日（周三）12：15－13：45          【地點】明商0202教室          【主講】劉哲希 對外經濟貿易大學國際經濟貿易學院講師          【主題】Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox：A Clash of Expectations and Statistics（Erik Brynjolfsson et al., NBER Working Paper, 2017）          【點評】李三希 中國人民大學經濟學院副教授          【摘要】We live in an age of paradox. Systems using artificial intelligence match or surpass human level performance in more and more domains, leveraging rapid advances in other technologies and driving soaring stock prices. Yet measured productivity growth has declined by half over the past decade, and real income has stagnated since the late 1990s for a majority of Americans. We describe four potential explanations for this clash of expectations and statistics: false hopes, mismeasurement, redistribution, and implementation lags. While a case can be made for each explanation, we argue that lags have likely been the biggest contributor to the paradox. The most impressive capabilities of AI, particularly those based on machine learning, have not yet diffused widely. More importantly, like other general purpose technologies, their full effects won’t be realized until waves of complementary innovations are developed and implemented. The adjustment costs, organizational changes, and new skills needed for successful AI can be modeled as a kind of intangible capital. A portion of the value of this intangible capital is already reflected in the market value of firms. However, going forward, national statistics could fail to measure the full benefits of the new technologies and some may even have the wrong sign.          
         【主持】陳彥斌 教授          
         人大宏觀經濟學研討會（Macro Workshop）旨在追蹤宏觀經濟學國際最新進展，倡導構建符合國情的動態優化模型，并使用計算機模擬研究經濟增長、收入分配和宏觀政策等中國宏觀經濟重大問題。          聯系人：王兆瑞    Email：Macro_Workshop@163.com          資料下載：www.docin.com/mydoc-88265459-1.html          更多講座信息請訪問：www.dehf4y.cn，www.yanjiuyuan.com.cn。      
      中國人民大學經濟學院          中國經濟改革與發展研究院