宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研討會

201207（總第112期）

【時(shí)間】2012年4月17日（周二）12：15－13：45

【地點(diǎn)】明主0304教室

【主講】夏曉華博士　中國經(jīng)濟(jì)改革與發(fā)展研究院講師，中山大學(xué)嶺南學(xué)院金融學(xué)博士、北京大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院應(yīng)用經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博士后

【主題】 Macroeconomic Effects From Government Purchases and Taxes（written by Barro and Redlick , QJE, 2011）

【摘要】For U.S. annual data that include World War II, the estimated multiplier for temporary defense spending is 0.4–0.5 contemporaneously and 0.6–0.7 over 2 years. If the change in defense spending is “permanent” (gauged by Ramey’s defense news variable), the multipliers are higher by 0.1–0.2. Since all estimated multipliers are significantly less than 1, greater spending crowds out other components of GDP, particularly investment. The lack of good instruments prevents estimation of reliable multipliers for nondefense purchases; multipliers in the literature of two or more likely reflect reverse causation from GDP to nondefense purchases. Increases in average marginal income tax rates (measured by a newly constructed time series) have significantly negative effects on GDP. When interpreted as a tax multiplier, the magnitude is around 1.1. The combination of the estimated spending and tax multipliers implies that the balanced budget multiplier for defense spending is negative. We have some evidence that tax changes affect GDP mainly through substitution effects, rather than wealth effects.

【主持】陳彥斌教授

人大宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研討會（Macro Workshop）旨在追蹤宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)國際最新進(jìn)展，倡導(dǎo)構(gòu)建符合國情的動態(tài)優(yōu)化模型（尤其是Bewley模型）并使用計(jì)算機(jī)模擬研究中國經(jīng)濟(jì)改革與發(fā)展的重大問題。

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