【ECON20191203】? ?

宏觀經(jīng)濟學研討會

（總第258期）? ????

【時間】2019年3月27日（周三）12：15－13：45? ? ? ? ??

【地點】明商0202教室 ? ? ? ? ?

【主講】陳小亮 中國社會科學院經(jīng)濟研究所 ? ? ? ? ?

【主題】Demographics and Automation（Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, NBER Working Paper, 2018） ? ? ? ? ?

【摘要】We argue theoretically and document empirically that aging leads to greater (industrial) automation, and in particular, to more intensive use and development of robots. Using US data, we document that robots substitute for middle-aged workers (those between the ages of 36 and 55). We then show that demographic change—corresponding to an increasing ratio of older to middle-aged workers—is associated with greater adoption of robots and other automation technologies across countries and with more robotics-related activities across US commuting zones. We also provide evidence of more rapid development of automation technologies in countries undergoing greater demographic change. Our directed technological change model further predicts that the induced adoption of automation technology should be more pronounced in industries that rely more on middle-aged workers and those that present greater opportunities for automation. Both of these predictions receive support from country-industry variation in the adoption of robots. Our model also implies that the productivity implications of aging are ambiguous when technology responds to demographic change, but we should expect productivity to increase and labor share to decline relatively in industries that are most amenable to automation, and this is indeed the pattern we find in the data. ? ? ? ? ?________________________________________ ? ? ? ? ?人大宏觀經(jīng)濟學研討會（Macro Workshop）旨在追蹤宏觀經(jīng)濟學國際最新進展，倡導構(gòu)建符合國情的動態(tài)優(yōu)化模型，并使用計算機模擬研究經(jīng)濟增長、收入分配和宏觀政策等中國宏觀經(jīng)濟重大問題。 ? ? ? ? ?

聯(lián)系人：王兆瑞? ? Email：Macro_Workshop@163.com ? ? ? ? ?

資料下載：www.docin.com/mydoc-88265459-1.html ? ? ? ? ?

更多講座信息請訪問：www.dehf4y.cn，www.yanjiuyuan.com.cn。? ? ??

中國人民大學經(jīng)濟學院

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