【ECON20161211】
宏觀經濟學研討會 （總第206期）  
【時間】2016年9月14日（周三）12：15－13：45 【地點】明商0302教室 【主講】劉凱 中國人民大學經濟學院助理教授，劍橋大學博士 【主題】Dilemma not Trilemma：The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence (Rey, NBER Working Paper, 2015) 【摘要】There is a global financial cycle in capital flows, asset prices and in credit growth. This cycle co-moves with the VIX, a measure of uncertainty and risk aversion of the markets. Asset markets in countries with more credit inflows are more sensitive to the global cycle. The global financial cycle is not aligned with countries’ specific macroeconomic conditions. Symptoms can go from benign to large asset price bubbles and excess credit creation, which are among the best predictors of financial crises. A VAR analysis suggests that one of the determinants of the global financial cycle is monetary policy in the center country, which affects leverage of global banks, capital flows and credit growth in the international financial system. Whenever capital is freely mobile, the global financial cycle constrains national monetary policies regardless of the exchange rate regime. 【主持】陳彥斌 教授

人大宏觀經濟學研討會（Macro Workshop）旨在追蹤宏觀經濟學國際最新進展，倡導構建符合國情的動態優化模型，并使用計算機模擬研究經濟增長、收入分配和宏觀政策等中國宏觀經濟重大問題。 聯系人：劉哲希    Email：Macro_Workshop@163.com 資料下載：www.docin.com/mydoc-88265459-1.html 更多講座信息請訪問：www.dehf4y.cn，www.yanjiuyuan.com.cn  
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