【ECON201313】

宏觀經濟學研討會

（總第142期）

【時間】2013年9月25日（周三）12：15－13：45

【地點】明商0202教室

【主講】郭豫媚　中國人民大學經濟學院

【主題】Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money: Breakdowns and Revivals (written by Thomas J. Sargent and Paolo Surico, American Economic Review, 2011)

【摘要】By extending his data, we document the instability of two low-frequency regression coefficients, namely, of inflation on money growth and an interest rate on money growth, respectively, that Lucas (1980) used to express two empirical propositions representing the quantity theory of money. We impute the differences in these regression coefficients to differences in monetary policies across periods. Estimation of a DSGE model over a subsample approximating Lucas’s yields parameters that imply values of the two long-run regression coefficients that confirm Lucas’s results for his particular sample period. But perturbing parameters of the monetary policy rule away from values estimated over Lucas’s subsample alters the population values of the two regression coefficients in ways that reproduce the pattern of instability observed over our longer sample.

【主持】陳彥斌 教授

人大宏觀經濟學研討會（Macro Workshop）旨在追蹤宏觀經濟學國際最新進展，倡導構建符合國情的動態優化模型，并使用計算機模擬研究經濟增長、收入分配和宏觀政策等中國宏觀經濟重大問題。

聯系人：陳小亮　　E_mail: chenxiaoliang2200@126.com

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