【ECON20171209】  
      宏觀經濟學研討會          （總第224期）      
【時間】2016年5月24日（周三）12：15－13：45  
【地點】明商0302教室  
【主講】陳樸 中國人民大學經濟學院  
【主題】Household Leverage and the Recession (V. Midrigan & T. Philippon Working Paper, 2016)  
【點評】劉凱 中國人民大學經濟學院助理教授  
【摘要】A salient feature of the 2007-2010 Great Recession is that states that experienced  
the largest declines in household debt also experienced the largest contraction in employment. We study an economy in which household liquidity constraints amplify the response of employment to changes in household debt. We estimate the model using data on consumption, employment, wages and household debt in a panel of U.S. states. The model predicts that the 25% decline in U.S. household debt in this period led to a 1.5% drop in the natural rate of interest, far too small compared to the 4.5% short-term interest rate observed in the U.S. at the onset of the recession. Shocks to household debt, on their own, are thus incapable of explaining the large drop in U.S. employment, since they can be offset by monetary policy. The effect of such shocks is amplified, however, if the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates binds for other reasons.  
【主持】陳彥斌 教授  
 
 
人大宏觀經濟學研討會（Macro Workshop）旨在追蹤宏觀經濟學國際最新進展，倡導構建符合國情的動態優化模型，并使用計算機模擬研究經濟增長、收入分配和宏觀政策等中國宏觀經濟重大問題。  
聯系人：劉哲希    Email：Macro_Workshop@163.com  
資料下載：www.docin.com/mydoc-88265459-1.html  
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      經濟學院          中國經濟改革與發展研究院