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時間：2025年4月14日12:00-13:30（周一）

地點：明德主樓734

主講人：翟潤卓 中國人民大學農業與農村發展學院助理教授

主持人：胡思捷

主題：Malthus Was Right and Wrong: Understanding China’s Economic Growth Over Two Millennia

講座簡介：We construct, for the first time, a decadal GDP dataset for China from 220 BCE to 1949 CE, which, when linked to adjusted post-1949 data based on official surveys, offers a clear view of China’s economic performance over the past two millennia. More importantly, the continuous series enables testing of Malthusian theory. Our findings indicate that Malthus’s prediction of stagnant per capita income in pre-modern economies likely applies only to the last millennium. Earlier periods in China, representing at least a quarter of the global population, did not experience prolonged stagnation. Furthermore, Malthus’s assumption that population growth outpaces food production may not universally apply to all pre-modern periods. Theoretical social scientists should approach Malthusian theory with caution when describing premodern economies.

個人簡介：翟潤卓，牛津大學經濟史博士，中國人民大學農業與農村發展學院助理教授。師從英國科學院院士、國際著名經濟史學家Stephen Broadberry教授。目前研究興趣包括：長期經濟增長，農業經濟史，歷史國民經濟核算等。研究見諸于Economic Development and Cultural Change (已接收), Economics Letters, Asia-Pacific Economic History Review, 《經濟學家》，《經濟思想史學刊》等國內外知名期刊。博士論文Toward the Great Divergence: Economic Growth in the Yangzi Delta, 1393—1953獲2025年亞洲太平洋經濟和商業史年會兩年一屆的最佳博士論文獎，該獎項旨在獎勵亞洲太平洋范圍內經濟史研究的最佳博士論文。