【ECON201212】

宏觀經濟學研討會

（總第117期）

【時間】2012年9月18日（周二）12：15－13：45

【地點】明主0416教室

【主講】唐詩磊 中國人民大學經濟學院

【主題】Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend（written by Aguiar and Gopinath, JPE, 2007）

【摘要】Emerging market business cycles exhibit strongly countercyclical current accounts, consumption volatility that exceeds income volatility, and “sudden stops” in capital inflows. These features contrast with developed small open economies. Nevertheless, we show that a standard model characterizes both types of markets. Motivated by the frequent policy regime switches observed in emerging markets, our premise is that these economies are subject to substantial volatility in trend growth. Our methodology exploits the information in consumption and net exports to identify the persistence of productivity. We find that shocks to trend growth – rather than transitory fluctuations around a stable trend – are the primary source of fluctuations in emerging markets. The key features of merging market business cycles are then shown to be consistent with this underlying income process in an otherwise standard equilibrium model.

【主持】陳彥斌 教授

人大宏觀經濟學研討會（Macro Workshop）旨在追蹤宏觀經濟學國際最新進展，倡導構建符合國情的動態優化模型（尤其是Bewley模型）并使用計算機模擬研究中國經濟改革與發展的重大問題。

聯系人：陳偉澤　　E_mail: sysu2006vc@126.com

更多講座信息歡迎訪問se.ruc.edu.cn，www.yanjiuyuan.com.cn

經濟學院

中國經濟改革與發展研究院