報告摘要：
The exact specification and motivation for an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) is the subject of a vast literature in environmental economics. A remarkably diverse set of econometric approaches and candidate regressors have been proposed, which highlights the degree of model uncertainty surrounding the relationship between environmental quality and pollution. We introduce Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to the EKC analysis to examine: (a) whether a sulphur dioxide EKC exists, and if so (b) which income/pollution specification is supported by the data. BMA addresses model uncertainty as part of the empirical strategy by incorporating the uncertainty about the validity of competing theories into the posterior distribution. We find only weak support for an EKC, which disappears altogether when we address issues relating to the extreme oversampling of two industrialized countries in the sample. In contrast, our results highlight the relative importance of political economy and site-specific variables (specifically executive constraints and precipitation variation) in explaining pollution outcomes. Trade is shown to play an important indirect role, as it moderates the influence of the composition effect on pollution.

作者簡介：
Jeffrey C. Begun, Ph.D. is currently a full-time lecturer in University of Washington, Tacoma. His doctoral dissertation is titled A Bayesian Analysis of Model Uncertainty and Development. His research interests are focused on environmental economics, international Economics, economic growth and development. The paper he will discuss in the seminar has been published on Environment and Development Economics. The projects he is working on include “Different Growth for Different Folks? Reexamining East Asian Growth Determinants through Iterative Bayesian Model Averaging (IBMA)”, and “Initial Conditions and Heterogeneity in Cross-Country Growth: An Iterative Bayesian Model Averaging (IBMA) Analysis”. He serves as editorial board member for International Journal of Sustainable Economy, PPE Paper Prize committee chair and so on.

能源經濟學研討會（Energy Economics Seminar）由中國人民大學經濟學院能源經濟系定期推出，旨在為研究中國能源經濟問題的學者提供一個交流的平臺。

聯系人：魏楚(xiaochu1979@gmail.com)

　中國人民大學 經濟學院能源經濟系