【ECON201219】

宏觀經濟學研討會
（總第124期）

【時間】2012年11月20日（周二）12：15－13：45
【地點】明主0409教室
【主講】張略釗 中國人民大學漢青研究院
【主題】Global Demographic Trends and Social Security Reform (written　by Orazio Attanasio, Sagiri Kitao, and Giovanni Violante, Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007)
【摘要】How sustainable are the current social security systems in the deve- loped economies, given the projected demographic trends? The most recent lite- rature has answered this question through dynamic general equilibrium models in a closed-economy framework. This paper provides a new quantitative bench- mark of analysis for this question represented by a two-region model (South and North) of the world economy where capital flows across regions. The timing and the extent of the demographic transition – and the associated economic forces shaping capital accumulation and equilibrium factor prices – are very different in the two regions. Thus, the projected paths of interest rate and wage rate in the North diverge substantially between closed and open economy. We perform a wide range of policy experiments under both scenarios. Our main conclusion is that if one is interested in quantifying the path of the fiscal variables needed to keep the social security system viable or to finance a transition towards a fully funded system, then these two benchmarks yield similar results.
【主持】陳彥斌 教授

人大宏觀經濟學研討會（Macro Workshop）旨在追蹤宏觀經濟學國際最新進展，倡導構建符合國情的動態優化模型（尤其是Bewley模型）并使用計算機模擬研究中國經濟改革與發展的重大問題。

聯系人：陳偉澤　　E_mail: sysu2006vc@126.com
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經濟學院
中國經濟改革與發展研究院