【時間】2019年12月16日12:30-14:00

【地點】中國人民大學明德主樓729

【主題】International Comovement in the Global Production Network

【主講人】霍震，耶魯大學經濟系助理教授

【主持人】韓松 中國人民大學經濟學院教授

【主講人介紹】

霍震，耶魯大學經濟系助理教授，明尼蘇達大學經濟學博士（2015），中國人民大學2005級經數實驗班畢業生。研究領域為宏觀經濟學和國際金融，研究成果發表在American Economic Review、Review of Economic Dynamics、American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics等一流經濟學雜志。

【摘要】This paper provides a quantitative account of the role of production networks in international GDP comovement. We propose an accounting framework to decompose comovement into the components due to correlated shocks, and to the transmission of shocks across countries through the production network. We apply this decomposition in a multi-country multi-sector DSGE model, implemented on data for 30 countries and up to 28 years. We provide an analytical solution to the global influence matrix that characterizes every country's general equilibrium GDP elasticities with respect to various shocks anywhere in the world. We then infer supply shocks at the country-sector level based on the observed value-added growth rates and the global influence matrix. We find that the recovered shocks are positively correlated, and this shock correlation accounts for two thirds of the observed GDP comovement in our preferred calibration. International transmission through trade is responsible for the remaining one third.

編輯:楊菲；核稿:陸美賀