【ECON20181206】  
 
      宏觀經濟學研討會          （總第241期）          
     
 
      【時間】2018年4月25日（周三）12：15－13：45          【地點】明商0202教室          【主講】陳小亮 中國社科院經濟研究所          【主題】New Evidence on the Aftermath of Financial Crises（Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, American Economic Review, 2017）          【點評】周璇 中國人民大學經濟學院助理教授          【摘要】This paper examines the aftermath of postwar financial crises in advanced countries. We construct a new semiannual series on financial distress in 24 OECD countries for the period 1967–2012. The series is based on assessments of the health of countries’ financial systems from a consistent, real-time narrative source, and classifies financial distress on a relatively fine scale. We find that the average decline in output following a financial crisis is statistically significant and persistent, but only moderate in size. More important, we find that the average decline is sensitive to the specification and sample, and that the aftermath of crises is highly variable across major episodes. A simple forecasting exercise suggests that one important driver of the variation is the severity and persistence of financial distress itself. At the same time, we find little evidence of nonlinearities in the relationship between financial distress and the aftermaths of crises.          【主持】陳彥斌 教授              人大宏觀經濟學研討會（Macro Workshop）旨在追蹤宏觀經濟學國際最新進展，倡導構建符合國情的動態優化模型，并使用計算機模擬研究經濟增長、收入分配和宏觀政策等中國宏觀經濟重大問題。          聯系人：劉哲希    Email：Macro_Workshop@163.com          資料下載：www.docin.com/mydoc-88265459-1.html          更多講座信息請訪問：www.dehf4y.cn，www.yanjiuyuan.com.cn。          
     
 
   
 
      中國人民大學經濟學院