【ECON20161207】
宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研討會(huì) （總第202期）  
【時(shí)間】2016年4月20日（周三）12：15－13：45
【地點(diǎn)】明法0102教室
【主講】陳小亮 中國(guó)社會(huì)科學(xué)院經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所
【主題】The Tail that Wags the Economy Belief Driven Business Cycles and Persistent Stagnation (J. Kozlowski et al., NBER Working Paper, 2015)
【點(diǎn)評(píng)】薛澗坡 中國(guó)人民大學(xué)財(cái)政金融學(xué)院副教授
【摘要】The “Great Recession” was a deep downturn with long-lasting effects on credit markets, labor markets and output. We explore a simple explanation: This recession has been more persistent than others because it was perceived as an extremely unlikely event before 2007. Observing such an episode led all agents to re-assess macro risk, in particular, the probability of tail events. To model this idea, we study a production economy with debt-financed firms. Agents use standard econometric tools to estimate the distribution of aggregate shocks. We feed a time-series of US macro data into our model and show that our belief revision mechanism can explain the 12% downward shift in US trend output.
【主持】陳彥斌 教授


人大宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研討會(huì)（Macro Workshop）旨在追蹤宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)國(guó)際最新進(jìn)展，倡導(dǎo)構(gòu)建符合國(guó)情的動(dòng)態(tài)優(yōu)化模型，并使用計(jì)算機(jī)模擬研究經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、收入分配和宏觀政策等中國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)重大問(wèn)題。
聯(lián)系人：劉哲希    Email：Macro_Workshop@163.com
資料下載：www.docin.com/mydoc-88265459-1.html
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