【ECON201302】

宏觀經濟學研討會

（總第131期）

【時間】2013年3月20日（周三）12：15－13：45

【地點】明主0304教室

【主講】陳樸　中國人民大學經濟學院助理教授 明尼蘇達大學經濟學博士

【主題】House Price Booms and the Current Account (written by Klaus Adam, Pei Kuang, and Albert Marcet, NBER Working Paper, 2011)
　　　 【摘要】A simple open economy asset pricing model can account for the house price and current account dynamics in the G7 over the years 2001-2008. The model features rational households, but assumes that households entertain subjective beliefs about price behavior and update these using Bayesian rule. The resulting beliefs dynamics considerably propagate economic shocks and crucially contribute to replicating the empirical evidence. Belief dynamics can temporarily delink house prices from fundamentals, so that low interest rates can fuel a house price boom. House price booms, however, are not necessarily synchronized across countries and the model is consistent with the heterogeneous response of house prices across the G7 following the reduction in real interest rates at the beginning of the millennium. The response to interest rates depends sensitively on agents` beliefs at the time of the interest rate reduction, which in turn are a function of the country specific history prior to the year 2000.
【主持】陳彥斌 教授

人大宏觀經濟學研討會（Macro Workshop）旨在追蹤宏觀經濟學國際最新進展，倡導構建符合國情的動態優化模型，并使用計算機模擬研究經濟增長、收入分配和宏觀政策等中國宏觀經濟重大問題。

聯系人：陳偉澤　　E_mail: sysu2006vc@126.com

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