【ECON201313】

勞動與發展經濟學研討會

【主題】 Human Capital and Growth of Industries: Evidence from China`s Higher Education Expansion in the Late 1990s.

【主講人】張磊　　　　　 上海交通大學安泰經濟與管理學院副教授

【時間】11月22日周五中午12：00-1：30

【地點】明德主樓 729　會議室。

【摘要】Human capital plays an important role determining individual earnings, earnings distribution, and productivity and economic growth. Yet, its empirical evaluation is often plagued by the endogeneity of education and reverse causality issues. This paper estimates the medium-term impact of higher education expansion on the growth of manufacturing industries in China, taking advantage of a nationwide natural experiment starting in 1999 that substantially expands the college access of high school graduates and generates subsequently a surge of the college-educated labor force starting in 2002. Taking advantage of the centrally-planned nature of the Chinese higher education system, I exploit the variation in the growth of college graduates across provinces that can be traced back to the college enrolment rate almost half a century ago at the conclusion of a centrally-designed relocation of higher education institutions. I conduct the IV estimation in a difference-in-differences framework and control for industry and province fixed effects. I find that industries that employ more human-capital intensive technologies in provinces with larger increases in college graduates experience significantly faster growth in total value-added, employment, and capital stock; moreover, larger and more established firm also experience faster growth in labor productivity and average labor compensation. The estimates are not driven by state-owned enterprises and are robust to the inclusion of an extensive set of control variables.

報告人簡介：張磊教授2004年畢業于美國斯坦福大學經濟系，獲得經濟學博士學位，同年到美國克萊蒙森大學任教，曾在美國斯坦福大學胡佛研究研究所任研究員，2013年開始任上海交大安泰經濟與管理學院副教授。張磊教授的研究領域主要在勞動經濟學、發展經濟學和中國經濟，她的論文發表在《Journal of Development Economics》等一流經濟學刊物上。

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中國人民大學經濟學院