【ECON20151208】


宏觀經濟學研討會 （總第181期）

【時間】2015年5月13日（周三）12：15－13：45
【地點】明商0202教室
【主講】黃源  韋祎  中國人民大學經濟學院
【主題】Learning and Monetary Policy Shifts (written by Frank Schorfheide, Review of Economic Dynamics, 2005)
【摘要】This paper estimates a dynamic stochastic equilibrium model in which monetary policy follows a nominal interest rate rule that is subject to regime switches in the target inflation rate. Two specifications are considered: agents know the current state of monetary policy (full information) and agents use Bayesian updating to infer the policy regime (learning). First, our policy regime estimates are consistent with the view that policy was marked by a shift to a high-inflation regime in the early 1970s which ended with Volcker’s stabilization policy. Second, while Bayesian posterior odds favor the full-information version of the model, the fall of interest rates, actual and expected inflation in the early 1980s is better captured by the delayed response of the learning specification. Third, monetary policy shocks of up to two standard deviations essentially do not trigger the Bayesian learning mechanism.
【主持】陳彥斌 教授


人大宏觀經濟學研討會（Macro Workshop）旨在追蹤宏觀經濟學國際最新進展，倡導構建符合國情的動態優化模型，并使用計算機模擬研究經濟增長、收入分配和宏觀政策等中國宏觀經濟重大問題。


聯系人：郭豫媚    Email：Macro_Workshop@163.com
資料下載：www.docin.com/mydoc-88265459-1.html
更多講座信息請訪問：www.dehf4y.cn，www.yanjiuyuan.com.cn








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