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講座題目：A Theory of Opium as the Cause of the Great Divergence

主講人：萬軍民 日本福岡大學教授

講座時間：2025年3月7日14:00-15:30

講座地點：中國人民大學明德主樓734

主講人簡介：

萬軍民，日本福岡大學經濟學教授、博士生導師，2024年8月至2025年8月為北京大學新結構經濟學研究院客座教授。他的研究領域涵蓋宏觀經濟學、金融學和發展經濟學。他出版了根據其博士論文改編的關于成癮的專著，并在國際期刊（如Journal of Financial Stability, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Journal of Housing Economics, The World Economy, International Review of Economic and Finance, Review of Development Economics, Journal of Japanese and International Economies等）上發表了 20 多篇文章，內容涉及泡沫溢價、時間約束的理性泡沫理論、投機儲蓄理論、家庭過度負債、固定投資有效年限、企業過度投資、商業銀行不良貸款等。曾擔任瑞士國家科學基金會和二十多家國際期刊的審稿人。在加入福岡大學之前，他曾在大阪大學擔任助理教授。他于大阪大學獲得經濟學博士學位、碩士學位和學士學位。

講座簡介：

The dramatic economic expansion of the British Empire compared with the tragical declining of the Qing Empire in the late 18th and 19th centuries has been called the Great Divergence, while there is no consensus on its cause. It is found here that, for over one hundred years, the smuggling and the forced imports of opium from the British Empire to the Qing Empire had exceeded the state revenues of the Qing Empire. To capture this historical fact, we present a theory of opium intake in a dynamic framework after empirically confirming its explosiveness, then we incorporate it into (a)symmetric two countries’ endogenous growth model. It is proved that opium serves to transfer the savings from one country to the other one so that the abnormal growth of one country accompanies the shrinkage of the other one. The opium intake was considered as a market failure, so the Qing Empire prohibited it by law after 1729, while the state capacity was not enough to execute the law. Therefore, the Great Divergence could be due to the cunning use of opium by Britain Empire and the incompetent Qing Empire. We also provide new insight on why there was rare capital in the Qing Empire, and on why the efficient market and facilitating state argued by Lin, Justin Yifu (2011) is indispensable for economic development.