【ECON20171206】  
      宏觀經濟學研討會          （總第221期）      
      【時間】2016年4月26日（周三）12：15－13：45          【地點】明商0302教室          【主講】韓少華 中國人民大學漢青經濟與金融高級研究院          【主題】The Permanent Effects of Fiscal Consolidations (A. Fatas & L. Summers, NBER Working Paper, 2016)          【摘要】The global financial crisis has permanently lowered the path of GDP in all advanced economies.At the same time, and in response to rising government debt levels, many of these countries have been engaging in fiscal consolidations that have had a negative impact on growth rates. We empirically explore the connections between these two facts by extending to longer horizons the methodology of Blanchard and Leigh (2013) regarding fiscal policy multipliers. Our results provide support for the presence of strong hysteresis effects of fiscal policy. The large size of the effects points in the direction of self-defeating fiscal consolidations as suggested by DeLong and Summers (2012). Attempts to reduce debt via fiscal consolidations have very likely resulted in a higher debt to GDP ratio through their long-term negative impact on output.          【點評】陳小亮 中國社會科學院經濟研究所          【主持】陳彥斌 教授      
 
人大宏觀經濟學研討會（Macro Workshop）旨在追蹤宏觀經濟學國際最新進展，倡導構建符合國情的動態優化模型，并使用計算機模擬研究經濟增長、收入分配和宏觀政策等中國宏觀經濟重大問題。  
聯系人：劉哲希    Email：Macro_Workshop@163.com  
資料下載：www.docin.com/mydoc-88265459-1.html  
   
   
      經濟學院          中國經濟改革與發展研究院