[能源經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研討會(huì)]Nonlinear integrated resource strategic planning model and case study in China’s power sector planning
發(fā)文時(shí)間：2014-06-13

[ECON20141406]

能源經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研討會(huì)

 【總第43期】

Nonlinear integrated resource strategic planning model and case study in China’s power sector planning



本次能源經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研討會(huì)邀請(qǐng)到華北電力大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理學(xué)院副教授袁家海先生做學(xué)術(shù)講演。

時(shí)間：6月18日，星期三，13:00—14:00
地點(diǎn)：中國(guó)人民大學(xué)明德主樓734會(huì)議室


報(bào)告摘要：

In this paper we expand the IRSP (integrated resource strategic planning) model by including the external cost of TPPs (traditional power plants) and popularization cost of EPPs (efficiency power plants) with nonlinear functions. Case studies for power planning in China during 2011-2021 are conducted to show the efficacy of the model. Scenarios are compiled to compare the pathways of power planning under different policies.Results show that: 1) wind power will become competitive with technical learning, but its installation is undesirable when the external cost of coal power is not internalized; 2) the existence of popularization cost will hinder EPPs’ (efficiency power plants) deployment and pure market mechanism is not enough to deliver EPPs at socially desirable scale; 3) imposition of progressive emission tax on coal power at an average of 0.15e0.20 RMB/KWh can remedy the market distortion and promote the development of wind power by a significant margin; 4) nuclear power will grow stably when its external cost is set no more than 0.187 RMB per KWh, or 87% of its internal cost. The proposed model can serve as a useful tool for decision support in the process of power planning and policy formulation for national government.
作者簡(jiǎn)介：         

        袁家海先生現(xiàn)為華北電力大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理學(xué)院副教授；一直從事能源經(jīng)濟(jì)、能源政策分析與評(píng)價(jià)、低碳電力轉(zhuǎn)型與規(guī)劃等領(lǐng)域問題的研究。2004年以來(lái)公開發(fā)表論文60余篇，其中在國(guó)際權(quán)威期刊發(fā)表高水平學(xué)術(shù)論文16篇；出版（主編或參編）著作4部；主持教育部人文社科基金1項(xiàng)，參與國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金等省部級(jí)以上課題6項(xiàng)，參與國(guó)家電網(wǎng)公司、國(guó)網(wǎng)能源研究院、華東電網(wǎng)公司課題多項(xiàng)。兩次入選華北電力大學(xué)“151人才工程”青年骨干計(jì)劃；2013年入選北京市青年英才計(jì)劃。中國(guó)電機(jī)工程學(xué)會(huì)動(dòng)能經(jīng)濟(jì)專業(yè)委員會(huì)委員，Energy、Energy Economics、Energy Policy等10余份國(guó)際期刊審稿人。


        能源經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研討會(huì)（Energy Economics Seminar）由中國(guó)人民大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院能源經(jīng)濟(jì)系定期推出，旨在為研究中國(guó)能源經(jīng)濟(jì)問題的學(xué)者提供一個(gè)交流的平臺(tái)。 

　　　 聯(lián)系人：宋楓（songfeng@ruc.edu.cn）  


　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　 中國(guó)人民大學(xué) 經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院能源經(jīng)濟(jì)系