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題目：Trust and Credit

時間：2024年4月17日14:00-15:30

地點：明德主樓729

匯報人：游楊（哈佛大學經濟學博士；香港大學經管學院助理教授）

主持人：鄺仲弘（中國人民大學經濟學院講師）

摘要：

Over the past 35 years, high-trust countries have experienced faster growth in credit to private sector. We model trust as a collective reputation to understand its role in shaping different credit growth paths. The co-existence of equilibria with different trust levels suggests distrust to be a self-fulfilling prophecy: borrowers in a "low-trust" equilibrium opting for strategic default, driving up population-average default rates and borrowing costs, forcing credit supply and switching into informal credit market, and ultimately limiting economic growth. Both country-level implications and micro-mechanisms are empirically investigated. In particular, distrust persistently predicts lower GDP growth, which can be partially explained by slower credit expansion; lower trust forces peoples credit-related activities from financial institutions to private channels, either due to narrower formal inclusion or less active adoption. Our model also rationalizes the heterogeneous effects of financial regulation tightening under different trust levels, which discourages low-trust countries from imitating financial liberalization in high-trust economies. Empirically, financial liberalization corresponds to higher GDP growth in high-trust countries but lower GDP growth in low-trust countries, implying that regulation serves as an additional mechanism for credit divergence.

個人簡介：

Dr. Yang You joined the University of Hong Kong as an assistant professor in finance in July 2021. He obtained his Ph.D. degree in Economics from Harvard University and holds Bachelors in Mathematics and Economics from Tsinghua University. Yang You serves as a member in the CBDC expert group for HKMA, and Subcommittee on Ecosystem and Infrastructure of Task Force on Promoting Web 3 Development, leads Blockchain and Smart Contract lab at the University of Hong Kong Shenzhen. His research involves Cryptocurrency and Smart contracts, Decentralized finance, Development Economics, Culture and Economics, and Alternative data. His research has been published in Review of Economic Studies, Journal of Financial Economics, and NBER Macro Annual.